Tag Archives: current events

A Quiet Comeback

Posted August 16, 2012 by admin. tags:Tags: , ,
Island sunset


Written by Nathan White, Chief Investment Officer, Paragon Wealth Management

The markets have quietly snuck back close to their highs for the year.  I say quietly because the volume of transactions has been extremely low due to summer vacations (especially in Europe!), decent earnings, and it’s just plain hot.  Recent economic data has been a bit stronger suggesting that the economy could be turning up and that the second quarter weakness was mostly due to seasonal factors.  As we approach the highs, around 1420-1425 area in S&P, there is bound to be some resistance and what determines whether a breakout above this level can be made will probably rest upon events that will unfold over the next four weeks.

On the domestic front is Mr. Bernanke speaking at Jackson Hole on August 31 and whether there will be more QE.  The employment report then comes out on the first Friday of September.  The European situation, which has been quiet the last few weeks, comes back to the forefront with ECB meetings, Spanish meetings (and whether they will “formally” request aid), and German court rulings of the legality of the ESM.

All of these events, along with people coming back from “summer”, will put volume and potential volatility back into the market ahead of the election season going into full steam.  For now we view any weakness caused by these events to be buying opportunities.

Disclaimer
Paragon Wealth Management is a provider of managed portfolios for individuals and institutions. Although the information included in this report has been obtained from sources Paragon believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute the judgment as of the dates indicated and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

February 2012 Stock Market Update

Posted February 2, 2012 by admin. tags:Tags: , ,

Paragon Wealth Management’s investment advisers give their thoughts on what happened in the stock market in January and what they think will happen going forward.

Stay tuned next week for the rest of Dave Young’s article “Volatility Unleashed”.

Disclaimer
Paragon Wealth Management is a provider of managed portfolios for individuals and institutions. Although the information included in this report has been obtained from sources Paragon believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute the judgment as of the dates indicated and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.  

Extreme Volatility

Posted September 23, 2011 by admin. tags:Tags: ,
Bear eating fish

Written by Dave Young, President of Paragon Wealth Management

Ever since the market initially sold off the third week of July the volatility has been extreme. We saw the Dow go from 12,800 to 10,600 as our politicians presided over a debt ceiling circus which was  followed by a first time ever downgrade of U.S. Treasuries. Worries over the financial situation in Europe stoked the fear even more.

Ever since then the market action has reminded me of what I saw after the 1987 stock market crash. After that initial crash the market moved violently up and down for several month as traders actively moved between fear and greed. It was kind of like aftershocks following a major earthquake.

This time, after the initial sell off we’ve seen a ridiculous amount of volatility. Talk about lemmings running back and forth between extreme bullishness and extreme bearishness, the volatility has been unreal. It’s been a long time since I’ve seen so many extreme back and forth market swings in such a short amount of time.

For example, after the July sell off, the Dow moved back up a thousand points on good news, then went down 800 points on bad news. Then it moved back up another 1000 points… and back down 900 points… then back up 500 hundred points followed by another down 600 points. Then most recently it went back up 800 points which was followed by another 900 points down, which put us at a close of 10,733. We’ve moved an unbelievable  total of 8700 Dow points in two months.

There isn’t much that you can do when things get this volatile. We continue to be about 80% invested and are waiting for a trend to eventually establish itself. Since the first of August there has been no clear trend, just extreme back and forth moves.

The market may break and move lower which would give us a downward trend that we could adjust to. On the other hand, many of our indicators show that with stock valuations so low and volatility so high there is a good probability that we may see the market bottom in the near future. If that script plays out then we feel that there is decent chance for a significant rally between now and year end. Time will tell. As always, feel free to call or email us if you have any questions or concerns about your accounts.

Disclaimer
Paragon Wealth Management is a provider of managed portfolios for individuals and institutions. Although the information included in this report has been obtained from sources Paragon believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute the judgment as of the dates indicated and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

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