Written By Nate White, Chief Investment Officer of Paragon
With all the talk of the fiscal cliff and the possible negative
ramifications dominating the headlines I thought it might be nice to hear something
different. The following is a pretty good article outlining some
optimistic data regarding the economy. The author is a self-described
“pessimist” and so I believe it is a balanced look at current trends in the
economy that we have been monitoring. These trends show that much of the
damage done by the ’08-’09 recession have been repaired and are starting to
To view the entire article please visit: seekingalpha.com
Here is an excerpt from the article:
Let me start by making a
I tend to be a negative person.
I don’t know why, but I expect and prepare for the worst. Few people know this.
To the outside world I’m an average optimist, but to those I allow into the
inner workings of my brain I’m a pessimist and a cynic.
It’s not that I want to be a
negative person. I’ve just seen enough to understand that eternal optimists are
often disappointed. I’d rather prepare for the worst and be pleasantly
surprised when things turn out better. But often they don’t.
Despite my natural tendencies,
over the past several years I have uncovered periods where economic data
provides a glimmer of hope. I understand that change begins at the margin, and
that secular positive trends start with a infinitesimal inflection point. It is
easy for someone like me to tear these inflection points apart, but today I
will open my mind to the possibility that the state of the US economy is
Below I have outlined 9 charts
that suggest that the US economy is digging out of a very deep hole,
potentially validating the lofty levels of the S&P 500 (SPY).
Housing drove the US economy
after the 2001 recession, destroyed the economy during the ‘Great Recession’ of
2008/2009 and may lift the economy into another boom era. Housing is a big deal
because it has a massive trickle-down impact throughout the economy.
Construction jobs, durable goods orders, building materials purchases,
financial services jobs and so on are all positively impacted by a growing
To view the rest of the article please visit: seekingalpha.com