Written by Nathan White, Paragon’s Chief Investment Officer

The economic data is still presenting a mixed bag on whether a recession is coming or is already here.

For example, industrial production and manufacturing increased in August contrary to the ISM data that slipped negative for the first time since May 2009. Industrial production is up 3.3 percent on a year over year comparison which indicates moderate economic growth. Overall, the economic leading indicators are still pointing up (anemically so, however) and a recession has never started when they have been advancing.

Much of the slowdown is being affected by the political headlines that are driving markets. 

This uncertainty naturally creates a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy as business and consumers hold back. The bad news is that the economy is not growing at a rate that can significantly reduce unemployment or raise standards of living. The good news is that the economy is sort of bouncing along the bottom, and it is hard to get significantly worse. It is running more or less at what I call its replacement rate (e.g., people buy a car when the old one dies as opposed to upgrading because they’re doing well) and until the debt overhang is worked off, the economy will have a hard time taking off.   

Paragon Wealth Management is a provider of managed portfolios for individuals and institutions. Although the information included in this report has been obtained from sources Paragon believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute the judgment as of the dates indicated and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.