More Money….But We Are Going To Pay For It

Posted September 18, 2013 by admin. tags:
Pile of American Money


Written by Nathan White, Chief Investment Officer of Paragon Wealth Management

The Fed surprised markets today by not beginning to taper
the massive QE program.  Markets were generally expecting a $10-15 billion
reduction and jumped sharply higher on the news.  The supposedly more
transparent Fed was anything but with this announcement.  This could cause
more volatility going forward as it introduces more uncertainty as to what the
Fed will do.  One thing for certain is that the taper will not begin under
Bernanke’s watch.  He is getting out before the hard part comes and
currently his most probable successor, Janet Yellen, is the most dovish policy
member.  That means it will be awhile before QE is ended and even longer
for an interest rate increase.

Personally, I think the Fed dropped the ball.  Better
to start to rein in QE now when things are not bad and let interest rates get
back to normal.  The important price signal that interest rates provide to
the economy has been muted for too long and is now hindering economic growth.
The longer the Fed continues QE the longer we will have subpar growth.
The longer they wait the harder it will be to do it down the road.
As I have often stated, if the economy does improve the Fed will be forced to
tighten which has a dampening effect on the economy bringing us right back down
to subpar growth.  If they don’t tighten when economic growth increases
then the inflation monster will rear its ugly head.

We will have to see how this plays out in the markets over
the next while, but this might provide an opportunity for bond investors to sell
into strength if rates on the 10 Yr head back down towards 2.5% or lower.

Disclaimer
Paragon Wealth Management is a provider of managed portfolios for individuals and institutions. Although the information included in this report has been obtained from sources Paragon believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute the judgment as of the dates indicated and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Market Trends

Posted September 12, 2013 by admin. tags:Tags: , , , , ,
Scary market trends

Over the past three years the markets have been very correlated.  Not all, but many of the sectors have moved up or down in lockstep fashion.  The stocks in the S&P 500 have been the most popular making that index very difficult to beat.

Those correlations seem to have started to change, ever since August 1st, or about the time interest rates started moving up.  Increasing interest rates have historically disrupted many of the standard market correlations.  It will be interesting to see if the S&P 500 will be able to continue its dominance going forward.

Since August 1st:

  • The S&P 500 is down 0.3%
  • Small Cap stocks are up 1.2%
  • Cyclical stocks are up 2.9%
  • Consumer stocks are down 2.9%
  • Utilities (supposedly conservative) are down 6.8%
  • Real Estate (also conservative) is down 4.0%
  • Telecom is down 4.9%

Bottom line, sector correlations are more dispersed than they have been.  Conservative sectors are getting beat up.

At Paragon, we like to see less correlation between the sectors.   Uncorrelated markets give our models much more to work with.  It will be interesting to see if these trends continue.  Keep posted.

Written by Dave Young, President and Founder of Paragon Wealth Management

Disclaimer
Paragon Wealth Management is a provider of managed portfolios for individuals and institutions. Although the information included in this report has been obtained from sources Paragon believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute the judgment as of the dates indicated and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Paragon’s Backyard Dinner

Posted September 6, 2013 by admin. tags:
Paragon Team and Clients

Thank you all for coming to Paragon’s Backyard Dinner. We had a great evening visiting and getting to know each other better. Plus we had fun giving out some great prizes!

Hope to see you next year!

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