Mistakes Investors Make and Why They Make Them

Posted August 26, 2009 by admin. tags:Tags: , ,
Money and Your Head

This is an excellent article about the mistakes investors make. It was taken from the Wall Street Journal Online. Feel free to leave comments.

 


photo by John Weber

 

The Mistakes We Make—and Why We Make Them

How investors think often gets in the way oftheir results. Meir Statman looks into our heads and tells us what we’re doing wrong.

Written by MEIR STATMAN

What was I thinking?

If there’s one question that investors have asked themselves over the past year and a half, it’s that one. If only I had acted differently, they say. If only, if only, if only.

Yet here’s the problem: While we know that we made investment mistakes, andvow not to repeat them, most people have only the vaguest sense of what those mistakes were, or, more important, why they made them. Why did we think and feel and behave as we did? Why did we act in a way that financial future.

This is where behavioral finance comes in. Most investors are intelligent people, neither irrational nor insane. But behavioral finance tells us we are also normal, with brains that are often full
and emotions that are often overflowing. And that means we are normal smart at times, and normal stupid at others.

The trick, therefore, is to learn to increase our ratio of smart behavior to stupid. And since we cannot (thank goodness) turn ourselves into computer-like people, we need to find tools to help us act smart even when our thinking and feelings tempt us to be stupid.

Let me give you one example. Investors tend to think about each stock we purchase in a vacuum, distinct from other stocks in our portfolio. We are happy to realize “paper” gains in each stock quickly, but procrastinate when it comes to realizing losses. Why? Because while regret over a paper loss stings, we can console ourselves in the hope that, in time, the stock will roar back into a gain. By contrast, all hope would be extinguished if we sold the stock and realized our loss. We would feel the searing pain of regret. So we do pretty much anything to avoid that pain—including holding on to the stock long after we should have sold it. Indeed, I’ve recently encountered an investor who procrastinated in realizing his losses on WorldCom stock until a letter from his broker informed him that the stock was worthless.

Successful professional traders are subject to the same emotions as the rest of us. But they counter it in two ways. First, they know their weakness, placing them on guard against it. Second, they establish “sell disciplines” that force them to realize losses even when they know that the pain of regret is sure to follow.

So in what other ways do our misguided thoughts and feelings get in the way of successful investing—not to mention increasing our stress levels? And what are the lessons we should learn, once we recognize those cognitive and emotional errors? Here are eight of them.

No. 1

Goldman Sachs is faster than you.

There is an old story about two hikers who encounter a tiger. One says: There is no point in running because the tiger is faster than either of us. The other says: It is not about whether the tiger is faster than either of us. It is about whether I’m faster than you. And with that he runs away. The speed of the Goldman Sachses of the world has been boosted most recently by computerized high-frequency trading. Can you really outrun them?

It is normal for us, the individual investors, to frame the market
race as a race against the market. We hope to win by buying and selling investments at the right time. That doesn’t seem so hard. But we are much too slow in our race with the Goldman Sachses.

So what does this mean in practical terms? The most obvious lesson is that individual investors should never enter a race against faster runners by trading frequently on every little bit of news (or rumors).

Instead, simply buy and hold a diversified portfolio. Banal? Yes. Obvious? Yes. Typically followed? Sadly, no. Too often cognitive errors and emotions get in our way.

No. 2

The future is not the past, and hindsight is not foresight.

Wasn’t it obvious in 2007 that financial institutions and financial markets were about to collapse? Well, it was not obvious to me, and it was probably not obvious to you, either. Hindsight error leads us to think that we could have seen in foresight what we see only in hindsight. And it makes us overconfident in our certainty about what’s going to happen.

Want to check the quality of your foresight? Write down in permanent ink your forecast of tomorrow’s stock prices. Do that each day for a year and check the accuracy of your predictions. You are likely to find that your foresight is not nearly as good as your hindsight.

Some prognosticators say that we are now in a new bull market and others say that this is only a bull bounce in a bear market. We will know in hindsight which prognostication was right, but we don’t know it in foresight.

When I hear in my mind’s ear a voice that says that the stock market is sure to zoom or plunge, I activate my “noise-canceling” device rather than go online and trade. You might wish to install this device in your mind as well.

No. 3

Take the pain of regret today and feel the joy of pride tomorrow.

Emotions are useful, even when they sting. The pain of regret over stupid comments teaches presidents and the rest of us to calibrate our words more carefully. But sometimes emotions mislead us into stupid behavior. We feel the pain of regret when we find, in hindsight, that our portfolios would have been overflowing if only we had sold all the stocks in 2007. The pain of regret is especially searing when we bear responsibility for the decision not to sell our stocks in 2007. We are tempted to alleviate our pain by shifting responsibility to our financial advisers. “I am not stupid,” we say. “My financial adviser is stupid.” Financial advisers are sorely tempted to reciprocate, as the adviser in the cartoon who says: “If we’re being honest, it was your decision to follow my recommendation that cost you money.”

In truth, responsibility belongs to bad luck. Follow your mother’s good advice, “Don’t cry over spilled milk.”

Where am I leading you? Stop focusing on blame and regret and yesterday and start thinking about today and tomorrow. Don’t let regret lead you to hold on to stocks you should be selling. Instead, consider getting rid of your 2007 losing stocks and using the money immediately to buy similar stocks. You’ll feel the pain of regret today. But you’ll feel the joy of pride next April when the realized losses turn into tax deductions.

No. 4

Investment success stories are as misleading as lottery success stories.

Have you ever seen a lottery commercial showing a man muttering “lost again” as he tears his ticket in disgust? Of course not. What you see instead are smiling winners holding giant checks.

Lottery promoters tilt the scales by making the handful of winners available to our memory while obscuring the many millions of losers. Then, once we have settled on a belief, such as “I’m going to win the
lottery,” we tend to look for evidence that confirms our belief rather than evidence that might refute it. So we figure our favorite lottery number is due for a win because it has not won in years. Or we try to divine—through dreams, horoscopes, fortune cookies—the next winning numbers. But we neglect to note evidence that hardly anybody ever wins the lottery, and that lottery numbers can go for decades without winning. This is the work of the “confirmation” error.

What is true for lottery tickets is true for investments as well. Investment companies tilt the scales by touting how well they have done over a pre-selected period. Then, confirmation error misleads us into focusing on investments that have done well in 2008.

Lottery players who overcome the confirmation error conclude that winning lottery numbers are random. Investors who overcome the confirmation error conclude that winning investments are almost as random. Don’t chase last year’s investment winners. Your ability to predict next year’s investment winner is no better than your ability to predict next week’s lottery winner. A diversified portfolio of many investments might make you a loser during a year or even a decade, but a concentrated portfolio of few investments might ruin you forever.

No. 5

Neither fear nor exuberance are good investment guides.

A Gallup Poll asked: “Do you think that now is a good time to invest in the financial markets?” February 2000 was a time of exuberance, and 78% of investors agreed that “now is a good time to invest.” It turned out to be a bad time to invest. March 2003 was a time of fear, and only 41% agreed that “now is a good time to invest.” It turned out to be a good time to invest. I would guess that few investors thought that March 2009, another time of great fear, was a good time to invest. So far, so wrong. It is good to learn the lesson of fear and exuberance, and use reason to resist their pull.

No. 6

Wealth makes us happy, but wealth increases make us even happier.

John found out today that his wealth fell from $5 million to $3 million. Jane found out that her wealth increased from $1 million to $2 million. John has more wealth than Jane, but Jane is likely to be happier. This simple insight underlies Prospect Theory, developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. Happiness from wealth comes from gains of wealth more than it comes from levels of wealth. While gains of wealth bring happiness, losses of wealth bring misery. This is misery we feel today, whether our wealth declined from $5 million to $3 million or from $50,000 to $30,000.

We’ll have to wait a while before we recoup our recent investment
losses, but we can recoup our loss of happiness much faster, simply by framing things differently. John thinks he’s a loser now that he has only $3 million of his original $5 million. But John is likely a winner if he compares his $3 million to the mountain of debt he had when he left college. And he is a winner if he compares himself to his poor neighbor, the one with only $2 million.

In other words, it’s all relative, and it doesn’t hurt to keep that in mind, for the sake of your mental well-being. Standing next to people who have lost more than you and counting your blessings would not add a penny to your portfolio, but it would remind you that you are not a loser.

No. 7

I’ve only lost my children’s inheritance.

Another lesson here in happiness. Mental accounting—the adding and subtracting you do in your head about your gains and losses—is a cognitive operation that regularly misleads us. But you can also use your mental accounting in a way that steers you right.

Say your portfolio is down 30% from its 2007 high, even after the recent stock-market bounce. You feel like a loser. But money is worth nothing when it is not attached to a goal, whether buying a new TV, funding retirement, or leaving an inheritance to your children or favorite charity.

A stock-market crash is akin to an automobile crash. We check ourselves. Is anyone bleeding? Can we drive the car to a garage, or do we need a tow truck? We must check ourselves after a market crash as well. Suppose that you divide your portfolio into mental accounts: one for your retirement income, one for college education of your grandchildren, and one for bequests to your children. Now you can see that the terrible market has wrecked your bequest mental account and dented your education mental account, but left your retirement mental account without a scratch. You still have all the money you need for food and shelter, and you even have the money for a trip around the country in a new RV. You might want to affix to it a new version of the old bumper sticker: “I’ve only lost my children’s inheritance.”

So here’s my advice: Ask yourself whether the market damaged your
retirement prospects or only deflated your ego. If the market has
damaged your retirement prospects, then you’ll have to save more, spend less or retire later. But don’t worry about your ego. In time it will inflate to its former size.

No. 8

Dollar-cost averaging is not rational, but it is pretty smart.

Suppose that you were wise or lucky enough to sell all your stocks at the top of the market in October 2007. Now what? Today it seems so clear that you should not have missed the opportunity to get back into the market in mid-March, but you missed that opportunity. Hindsight messes with your mind and regret adds its sting. Perhaps you should get back in. But what if the market falls below its March lows as soon as you get back in? Won’t the sting of regret be even more painful?

Dollar-cost averaging is a good way to reduce regret—and make your head clearer for smart investing. Say you have $100,000 that you want to put back into stocks. Divide it into 10 pieces of $10,000 each and invest each on the first Monday of each of the next 10 months. You’ll minimize regret. If the stock market declined as soon as you have invested the first $10,000 you’ll take comfort in the $90,000 you have not invested yet. If the market increases you’ll take comfort in the $10,000 you have invested. Moreover, the strict “first Monday” rule removes responsibility, mitigating further the pain of regret. You did not make the decision to invest $10,000 in the sixth month, just before the big crash. You only followed a rule. The money is lost, but your mind is almost intact.

Things could be a lot worse.

–Mr. Statman is a professor of finance at Santa Clara University in Santa Clara, Calif. He can be reached at reports@wsj.com.

No More Doom and Gloom?

Posted August 20, 2009 by admin. tags:Tags: , , ,
United States Capitol Building

Written by Nathan White, Chief Investment Officer at Paragon Wealth Management


photo by cliff 1066

Lately I’ve spoken to many investors who said they cannot see the markets moving any higher from the current level. They are so shell-shocked by the bear market that they are downright gloomy about our economic situation and don’t think it could actually improve.

Add to that a government that is putting on programs and regulations so fast that our collective heads are spinning, and it’s enough to give even the most ardent optimist some legitimate pause. The future ramifications of all these actions are creating a lot of justifiable concern for the future.

At Paragon Wealth Management, we are monitoring the potential risks and analyzing what the impact on the markets could be in order to give us a game plan if certain situations, such as inflation, should unfold.

In the past I’ve spoken about the recency effect, which is the tendency for people to extrapolate current conditions into the future. It is admittedly hard to have foresight when current conditions are bleak. I believe this behavioral phenomenon is a main reason why many are skeptical of a market advance.

How can we have a clear head and look through the current situation to see what is ahead? How can we prevent current events from unduly clouding our judgment about what the future holds? When it comes to discerning the effects of current government actions I think it is helpful to separate what the impacts are in terms of time.

THE EFFECT OF THE GOVERNMENT

Stimulus Package:
Short-term Effect- Expenditures boost GDP in the near-term and possibly aid/magnify economic rebound.
Cost/future Effect- Drag on future growth as borrowing must be paid off. Lower future GDP growth.

Fed Quantitative Easing
Short-Term Effect- Floods market with liquidity and low interest rates, which help to spur economic activity.
Cost/future Effect- Inflation. Higher interest rates.

Health Care Reform
Short-Term Effect- Cheaper health care provides more discretionary income possibly boosting GDP.
Cost/future Effect- Higher taxes to pay for growing entitlement results in lower GDP growth. Quality issues.

Cap-and-Trade
Short-Term Effect- No immediate negative effect as initials credits given away for “free”.
Cost/future Effect- Higher taxes. If new energy sources unreliable/inefficient and more expensive then GDP growth could suffer. Serious fraud abuse.

Regardless of whether you agree with the government or not, these actions will provide benefits in the short run that must be paid back in the long run.

I don’t think it is a stretch to say that most politicians don’t care about the long run. They almost always focus on providing the goods right now, and that is how they get elected. Government can only spend money by borrowing, taxing, or printing money. Too much of any one of these impedes economic activity. The first two are not inflationary while the latter is the essence of what inflation is.

CONSEQUENCES OF DEBT

There is nothing wrong with borrowing money — as long as you can afford the payments. The mistake that is usually made is that many assume they can make the payments and fail to account for future possible hardships. The other common mistake is that we often keep piling on the debt until we can’t service it anymore.

Government actions are no different. The more it “spends” now the more it has to pay back in the future. Where the breaking points is a matter of great debate. One thing for sure is that future GDP growth will be lower because of the obligations we are taking on now. There is no way around it. Notice that I said GDP growth will be slower, but not that GDP won’t grow. This is where many pessimists miss the boat. They naturally assume the worst from all of the government actions and take the worst case scenario.

For example, all of the monetary easing actions by the Fed have been unprecedented. These actions have the potential to create serious inflation down the road with some suggesting that we could be in for hyperinflation akin to what Germany experienced in the 1920’s (we all know what that led to).

The pessimists assume that this situation is inevitable and there is nothing the Fed can do to stop it. But what if the Fed’s actions can stop inflation or at least mitigate the negative effects from it. Shouldn’t this be considered? When and how any versions of this scenario unfold are too hard to predict. My point is that it doesn’t have to end in disaster!

GOVERNMENT ACTIONS

Now back to the immediate effect of the government actions. However inefficient, the net effect of these actions will be to boost economic activity in the short run.

So how long is the short run? No one knows, but I would say at least one to two years. We have also said that despite all of the confusing government actions, the economy will turn on its own accord because America is a dynamic place, and the natural state of the economy is to grow. People want to improve their economic situations. We might have 10% unemployment, but we still have 90% employment! Imagine what could happen if the economy is turning around right now and then that is coupled with the fiscal stimulus from the government. You could have GDP growth sooner than most expect! That means the stock market could be poised to continue the significant rally off of the March 9th lows.

The scenario that seems the most likely to me is that the economy will snap-back over the next year or so and then plateau with slower growth after hitting the headwinds previously discussed. Right now our economic models are confirming this scenario.

PARAGON’S APPROACH

This doesn’t mean I think the market will go straight up or that I am a “perma-bull” and oblivious to the risk that exist. Market and economic factors are constantly changing. At Paragon Wealth Management, we believe in taking a flexible approach to the market. Right now all of our economic, valuation, momentum and sentiment models are telling us to stay in the market. Until they change we will stay allocated to those areas we feel have the best potential.

Paragon Wealth Management
is a provider of managed portfolios for individuals and institutions.
Although the information included in this report has been obtained from
sources Paragon believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its
accuracy.  All opinions and estimates included in this report
constitute the judgment as of the dates indicated and are subject to
change without notice.  This report is for informational purposes only
and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the
purchase or sale of any security.  Past performance is not a guarantee
of future results.   

Is the Recession Over? How Should I be Invested Now?

Posted August 14, 2009 by admin. tags:Tags: , , , , ,
The New York Stock Exchange Flags

Written by Dave Young, President of Paragon Wealth Management


photo by buggolo

We have been encouraging investors to become fully invested in the stock market since March of this year. We likened the stock market to “the sale of the century.”

At a time when most investors were selling all of their investments, we told investors to move back to a fully invested position.

We recommended that you as an investor take advantage of this rare, although scary, situation by investing in those areas of the market that have historically performed “best” after a market meltdown. We didn’t just give the typical – but useless – “cautiously optimistic” outlook. We named specific areas of the market you should be invested in.

Since the March 9 low, through July 31, the S&P 500 has gained 46 percent. It has made back its losses from January through mid-March and is now up 10.9 percent year-to-date through July 31. During that same time, our growth portfolio, Top Flight is up 17.2 percent year-to-date.

The reason we are up substantially more than the market is because we invested in those areas that perform best after severe market decline — just like we recommended. If you followed our advice, you were rewarded.

Going forward, the question is, how should an investor be invested?

Our indicators and the models we follow are showing there is a high probability the recession ended in June — although this hasn’t shown up in the press and is not yet mainstream knowledge.

The first and sharpest stage of the market recovery usually occurs right after the initial market plunge and takes about three to four months. We believe stage one occurred between March 9 and June 30. The second stage of recovery occurs after the recession ends, which we believe was around the end of June.

If it is true the recession ended in June, then we now want to be invested in those areas of the market that do best during the second stage, or after a recession ends.

The second stage lasts for about six months. Following the last eleven recessions, the data clearly show that certain areas of the market consistently perform best during stage two.

Typically, bonds perform poorly after recessions and should be avoided. Interest rates get pushed down during the recession, and then, as the economy starts to expand, demand for money increases and interest rates go back up. When interest rates go up, most bonds get hammered and lose money.

Bonds are one of the worst places to be as an economy emerges from a recession.

Unfortunately, many misguided investors have been running to bonds for the past six months, hoping to find safety. If history repeats, they will find the opposite of what they seek.

From a big picture perspective, small cap, growth, commodities and emerging market stocks have performed the best for the six months following the end of the recession. On a sector basis, energy, materials, tech and consumer discretionary stocks performed the best.

On the other hand, in addition to bonds, other sectors that usually perform poorly after a recession ends — and should be avoided — include consumer staples, health care and telecommunication stocks.

This difficult market highlights why “active” investment management is so important.

If market dynamics always stayed the same, then a simple buy-and-hold approach would most likely work well for investors. Because market dynamics are constantly changing and evolving, we believe the best investment approach is one that actively adjusts, moves and changes based on market conditions.

Paragon Wealth Management
is a provider of managed portfolios for individuals and institutions.
Although the information included in this report has been obtained from
sources Paragon believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its
accuracy.  All opinions and estimates included in this report
constitute the judgment as of the dates indicated and are subject to
change without notice.  This report is for informational purposes only
and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the
purchase or sale of any security.  Past performance is not a guarantee
of future results.   

The Stock Market is Looking Good…

Posted August 6, 2009 by admin. tags:Tags: , , , ,
Beautiful River

Written by Dave Young, President of Paragon Wealth Management

 


photo by somegeekintn

 

Since the March 9th low, the market has been in rally mode. Amidst a backdrop of naysayers, from March through the end of July, the S&P 500 gained 46% and has pulled positive with a year-to-date return of 10.95% through July31st.

The rally has been global in scope, with almost all sectors and countries participating. Global stock markets had their best quarter in over 20 years. For the most part, last year’s worst performers were this year’s best.

Both of our portfolios outperformed their benchmarks.

Our conservative portfolio, Managed Income, is up 7.13%%. Our growth portfolio, Top Flight, is up 17.21% year-to-date, versus 10.95% for the S&P 500. Since its inception in January 1998 through June 2009, Top Flight extended its gains to 301% versus 24% for the S& 500. (That is not a typo).

Last quarter, as the media proclaimed the world was ending, we said investors should position themselves in the areas of the market that historically perform the best after a bear market.

We also strongly recommended that investors avoid treasury bonds. Last year’s treasury bonds were the only decent performing asset class. As a result they became very popular, just at the wrong time. So far this year, treasury bonds have moved from first to worst and are one of the worst performing asset classes, with the Barclays Long Term Treasury Bonds Index down -12.25% year-to-date.

Once again undisciplined investors moved to the “safety” of treasuries after getting beat up in stocks, just in time to get beat up again.

On the other hand, the areas of the market that usually do well after a bear market have performed exceptionally, just as we expected.

From the March 9th lows through June 15th, the sectors we recommended performed as follows:  Financials +94%, Industrials +50%, Material +49%, Consumer Discretionary +46%, Technology +43%. On a macro basis, growth outperformed value and emerging markets beat developed markets. Our focus on Brazil and China significantly benefited our growth portfolios.

BENEFITS OF RISK MANAGEMENT

As I mentioned, our growth portfolio, Top Flight, generated a total return of 301% versus only 24% for the S&P 500 from January 1998 through July 2009. Investors often assume our portfolios take more risk because our returns are high. Actually, the opposite is true. Avoiding large losses has generated much of our excess return.

For example, in the recent market cycle, January 2007 through July 2009 the S&P 500 lost 26.3% of its value. Many investors have done even worse. During that same period, our actively managed Top Flight Portfolio was down only 9.3%.

To accurately compare performance the most important question to ask is, “How much of a return is needed by each investment strategy in order to get back to even?”

Calculating percentage returns is different than most investors realize. For example, if you have a 25% loss, you need 33% to get back to even, which is workable. If you lose 50% of your portfolio, you need to make 100% to get back to even, which is obviously a much more difficult task.

For example, let’s compare Top Flight to the S&P 500. For Top Flight to recover its 9.3% loss it only needs to earn 10%. For the S&P 500 to recover its 26.3% loss, it will need to earn 36%. As you can see, the size of the loss has an exponential negative effect on an investor’s ability to recover. It will take investors in the broad market (S&P 500) three times as much effort just to get back to even versus Top Flight.

Avoiding large losses is critical to long-term success. Investors must follow a disciplined, non-emotional, long-term, proven investment strategy if they want to succeed.

Paragon Wealth Management is a provider of managed portfolios for individuals and institutions.  Although the information included in this report has been obtained from sources Paragon believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy.  All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute the judgment as of the dates indicated and are subject to change without notice.  This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.   

 

Invest in the Stock Market Now or Wait?

Posted August 4, 2009 by admin. tags:Tags: , , , ,
Your money

Written by Dave Young, President of Paragon Wealth Management
As seen in Paragon’s 2nd quarter 2009 print newsletter


photo by emdot

This seems to be the million-dollar question for investors on the sidelines.

The same voices that expected the markets to continue downward three months ago still expect more decline. As a result, they have missed one of the biggest quarterly rallies in recent history. Since they missed the rally now, most are forecasting (and hoping) the market will decline so they will have a chance to invest later.

So far, every time the market tries to sell off, investors that missed the initial rally pile in. It appears that some of the money on the sidelines comes in during every sell off, and that is what has kept the market going up.

Should an investor jump in now or wait until the market goes back down?

I have been asked this question several times in the past six months. It would be helpful if we had the ability to see into the future, but obviously that isn’t the case. Instead, we look at history and probabilities for guidance.

In our growth portfolios, we have been fully invested for the most part since the March lows. During the past couple of months, we have reduced exposure and raised some cash because our indicators show the market overbought in the short-term.

Even if I didn’t have the benefit of using sophisticated models I would still want to be fully invested because we know the economy will eventually recover. We just don’t know when.

On average, recessions last between six and 16 months. At the end of June we were about 17 months into it, making it one of the longest ever. Every month the recession continues the odds increase that the economy will turn positive. Our most recent work indicates it is highly likely the recession ended at the end of June.

Historically, expansions tend to be long and recessions are usually short. In the past positive expansions have lasted three times as long as recessions.

We want to be invested as the economy moves from recession back to expansion.

If we assume the economy will eventually return to expansion, is the market reasonably priced today? In other words, is this a good entry point for new investors? Depending who you talk to, arguments are made claiming the market is ridiculously cheap or the market is outrageously expensive. Both sides use complicated metrics to make their case.

From a simplistic standpoint, the Dow Industrials was at 14,000 18 months ago and fell all the way to 6,500, which is a 12-year low. In inflation adjusted terms, it was a 43-year low.

In my investing experience, the market seems incredibly cheap.

While I don’t expect the Dow Industrials to be rushing back to 14,000 any time soon, I do think the current levels are too low. I believe this market is still pricing in a worst-case scenario rather than reality. Historically, after a huge sell off, the markets deliver good returns over the next several years.

Finally, the stock market is a leading indicator. Many investors want to wait until the economy is back to normal before they invest. That strategy doesn’t work. Investors who wait for confirmation that the economy has recovered before they will likely miss the bulk of the returns that usually occur after a bear market.

Historically, long before the economy is back to normal, the stock market has fully recovered.

In other words, the stock market has always moved up before the economy recovers. Watching the economy for clues of when to invest doesn’t work. Watching the stock market itself gives investors better clues of when to invest after a decline.

Historically, getting into the stock market while the economy is still in recession has proven to be a good investment strategy.

 

Paragon Wealth Management
is a provider of managed portfolios for individuals and institutions.
Although the information included in this report has been obtained from
sources Paragon believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its
accuracy.  All opinions and estimates included in this report
constitute the judgment as of the dates indicated and are subject to
change without notice.  This report is for informational purposes only
and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the
purchase or sale of any security.  Past performance is not a guarantee
of future results.   

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